Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.59%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
3.59%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.63%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2125 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9554 | 173.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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