Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.06%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
4.06%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
4.07%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2063 | 6.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0388 | 7.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9554 | 176.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.42 |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2063 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0388 | 7.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9554 | 176.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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