Bloomberg US MBS Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.23%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.23%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
4.22%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 266 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8394 | 5.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 10.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9198 | 125.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
266 days
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