Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.55%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
3.55%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.56%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9823 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0535 | 6.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 99.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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