V-Lab
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.94%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
3.94%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
3.98%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2726 | 8.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 126.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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