Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.84%
increased by 0.55%
1 Week
4.83%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
4.82%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2625 | 8.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0471 | 6.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9451 | 127.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 2.18** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2625 | 8.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0471 | 6.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 127.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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