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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.21%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

4.23%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.29%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 67 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1138
10.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0443
7.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9454
135.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.45

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days