Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.21%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.23%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.29%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 67 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1138 | 10.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0443 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9454 | 135.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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