Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.39%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
3.47%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.75%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4060 | 7.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0792 | 6.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9075 | 78.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 3.92*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4060 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 6.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9075 | 78.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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