Bloomberg US Intermediate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.75%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.75%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
2.76%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4602 | 8.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0502 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9408 | 131.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 4.42*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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