Bloomberg US Intermediate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.97%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
2.98%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
3.00%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0554 | 7.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0447 | 43.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 1,637.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7427 | 7.09*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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