Bloomberg US Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.62%
1 Week
4.62%
1 Month
4.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.1042 | 2.76*** |
| αscore | 0.0397 | 8.97*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9919 | 312.62*** |
| νDF | 9.3599 | 1.01 |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.1042 | 2.76*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0397 | 8.97*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9919 | 312.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3599 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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