Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.83%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
3.84%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
3.88%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0854 | 8.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0345 | 32.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 1,217.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4634 | 3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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