Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.71%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
3.72%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.75%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1771 | 9.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0377 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9549 | 171.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
92 days
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