Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.33%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
2.64%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
3.57%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4358 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2673 | 12.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7220 | 35.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0779 | 5.30*** |
| γ2 | -0.1137 | -4.58*** |
| γ3 | 0.0725 | 3.50*** |
| γ4 | -0.0549 | -4.01*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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