Bloomberg Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.35%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
1.44%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
1.57%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2926 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2882 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5549 | 7.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 8.4912 | 4.43*** |
| γ2 | -15.0726 | -5.55*** |
| γ3 | 11.4251 | 5.72*** |
| γ4 | -4.7503 | -2.52** |
| γ5 | -3.2991 | -2.07** |
| γ6 | 4.8715 | 3.56*** |
| γ7 | -2.4071 | -1.79* |
| γ8 | 1.3343 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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