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Bloomberg Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.51%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

3.59%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

3.92%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 224% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 224% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
4.70***
αARCH0.0740
2.48**
βGARCH0.8432
37.70***
γleverage0.1655
2.85***

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
4.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
2.48**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8432
37.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1655
2.85***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days