V-Lab
Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.09%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
5.12%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
5.20%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 14.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 14.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9492 | 472.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0097 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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