Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged GBP GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
5.62%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
5.64%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
5.69%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0014 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0417 | 3.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9445 | 113.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.0107 | 0.48 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0417 | 3.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9445 | 113.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0107 | 0.48 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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