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V-Lab

Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.48%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

3.49%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

3.53%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
12.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0540
18.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9283
441.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0314
5.94***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

342 days