Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.48%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.49%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
3.53%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 12.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0540 | 18.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9283 | 441.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0314 | 5.94*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
342 days
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