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Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

5.08%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

5.09%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

5.11%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1435 trading days (~5.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1435 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0002
2.32**
αARCH0.0474
4.21***
βGARCH0.9438
111.47***
γleverage0.0166
0.96

1.000

Persistence

1435d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
2.32**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0474
4.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9438
111.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0166
0.96

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1435 days