Bloomberg Asian Pacific Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
5.08%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
5.09%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
5.11%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1435 trading days (~5.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1435 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.0474 | 4.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9438 | 111.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.0166 | 0.96 |
1.000
Persistence1435d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 4.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9438 | 111.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0166 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1435 days
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