Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.12%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.13%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.20%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 12.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0367 | 19.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9581 | 664.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0020 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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