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Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.08%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

4.10%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

4.17%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
12.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0367
19.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9581
664.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0020
0.60

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

163 days