V-Lab
Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.41%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.44%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.54%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 210 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 10.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 15.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9608 | 607.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0001 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
210 days
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