Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.97%
increased by 0.22%
1 Week
4.98%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
5.02%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0013 | 4.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0339 | 4.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9462 | 137.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.0176 | 1.17 |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 4.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0339 | 4.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9462 | 137.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0176 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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