Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.22%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
4.22%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.19%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1996 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 11.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0499 | 17.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9456 | 512.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0012 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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