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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.22%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

4.22%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

4.19%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 23, 1996 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
11.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0499
17.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9456
512.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0012
-0.26

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days