Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
5.04%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
5.04%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
5.05%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 1996 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0400 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9506 | 147.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0054 | 0.35 |
0.993
Persistence103d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0400 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9506 | 147.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0054 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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