ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1.96%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.14%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
2.69%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 18.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1103 | 25.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8070 | 236.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1532 | 14.24*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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