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V-Lab

ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

1.96%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

2.14%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

2.69%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0015
18.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1103
25.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8070
236.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1532
14.24***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days