ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6.01%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
6.02%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
6.03%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 24% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 18.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0365 | 14.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9554 | 750.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0089 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
186 days
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