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V-Lab

ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

6.01%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

6.02%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

6.03%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 24% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
18.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0365
14.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9554
750.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0089
2.17**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

186 days