Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.25%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
8.28%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
8.41%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 47% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0020 | 9.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0428 | 16.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9607 | 813.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0136 | -3.81*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
212 days
Other Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices