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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

8.25%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

8.28%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

8.41%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg US Long Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 47% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0020
9.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0428
16.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9607
813.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0136
-3.81***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

212 days