Bloomberg Japanese Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged JPY GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.60%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
4.58%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
4.51%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 10.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1020 | 16.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8866 | 278.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0077 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
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