Bloomberg US Intermediate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.92%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.94%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.00%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 179 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 33% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 14.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0441 | 24.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9449 | 566.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0144 | 3.88*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
179 days
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