Bloomberg US Intermediate Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.30%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
3.31%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
3.35%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~171 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 3.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0436 | 6.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9449 | 143.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.0149 | 1.02 |
0.996
Persistence171d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0436 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9449 | 143.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0149 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
171 days
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