Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.83%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
3.83%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
3.85%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 13.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0530 | 17.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9285 | 335.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0181 | 3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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