Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.48%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
3.45%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
3.37%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0958 | 6.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 73.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -1.46 |
| γ2 | 0.0068 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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