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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.48%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

3.45%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

3.37%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Credit Baa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0958
6.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0627
6.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9141
73.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0039
-1.46
γ20.0068
2.07**

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days