Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.57%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.58%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.61%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3923 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 6.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9201 | 74.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0079 | 1.69* |
| γ2 | -0.0095 | -1.71* |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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