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Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.16%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

3.15%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

3.13%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3775
3.92***
αARCH0.0617
7.17***
βGARCH0.9204
76.52***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0071
1.80*
γ2-0.0086
-1.84*

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3775
3.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0617
7.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9204
76.52***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0071
1.80*
γ2-0.0086
-1.84*

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days