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V-Lab

Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.57%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

2.58%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

2.61%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3923
3.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0623
6.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9201
74.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0079
1.69*
γ2-0.0095
-1.71*

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days