Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

2.81%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

2.81%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

2.83%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0373
8.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0440
38.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9943
1,508.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4957
5.58***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

121 days