Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.58%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

5.67%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

6.00%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2313
7.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0665
21.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9794
344.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8897
3.71***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days