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Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

5.18%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

5.30%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

5.70%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2313
7.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0665
21.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9794
344.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8897
3.71***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days