Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
6.17%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
6.23%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
6.43%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifev = 6.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.2280 | 1.83* |
| αscore | 0.0686 | 5.74*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9813 | 94.49*** |
| νDF | 6.7135 | 1.08 |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.2280 | 1.83* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0686 | 5.74*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9813 | 94.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7135 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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