Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.58%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
5.67%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
6.00%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2313 | 7.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0665 | 21.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9794 | 344.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8897 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
Other Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Bond Indices