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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.22%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

2.41%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

3.02%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 21, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1445
6.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2117
59.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9854
420.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0093
24.93***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days