Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.22%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
2.41%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
3.02%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1445 | 6.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2117 | 59.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 420.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0093 | 24.93*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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