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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

1.97%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

2.19%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.80%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 21, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 135% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1595
32.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6823
84.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2148
25.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0010
8.27***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0766
7.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9142
73.44***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days