Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.97%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
2.19%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.80%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 135% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1595 | 32.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6823 | 84.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2148 | 25.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0010 | 8.27*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0766 | 7.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9142 | 73.44*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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