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V-Lab

Bloomberg Pan Euro High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

1.41%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

1.57%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

1.96%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Pan Euro High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 20, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 86% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1655
33.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6672
66.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1423
14.24***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0001
2.71***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0417
5.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9583
115.84***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days