V-Lab
Bloomberg Pan Euro High-Yield Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.41%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
1.57%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
1.96%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 86% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1655 | 33.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6672 | 66.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1423 | 14.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 2.71*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0417 | 5.80*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9583 | 115.84*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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