V-Lab
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index Hedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.35%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
3.35%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.36%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 191% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0265 | 7.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8338 | 52.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0506 | 11.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0008 | 1.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1001 | 1.51 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8857 | 11.34*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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