V-Lab
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.12%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
4.14%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.21%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2001 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 46% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0502 | 9.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7989 | 30.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0230 | 5.22*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0006 | 1.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0465 | 1.71* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9485 | 31.75*** |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
Other Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices