Bloomberg US Universal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.56%
1 Week
3.59%
1 Month
3.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 266 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0156 | 6.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 428.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0176 | 12.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0481 | 0.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2998 | 0.22 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
266 days
Other Bloomberg US Universal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Bond Indices