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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Universal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.56%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

3.59%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

3.64%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Bloomberg US Universal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 266 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0156
6.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9730
428.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0176
12.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0481
0.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2998
0.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

266 days