Bloomberg Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Hedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.98%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
2.21%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.54%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 17, 2019 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 14.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4950 | 21.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1676 | 10.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0009 | 2.26** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1182 | 3.67*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8694 | 23.37*** |
Persistence:
0.748
Half-life:
2 days
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