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Bloomberg Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

3.69%

increased by 0.28%

1 Week

3.74%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

3.93%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Global High Yield Total Return Index Value Hedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 17, 2019 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 daysv = 4.19 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.1456
1.60
αscore0.1294
12.69***
βpersistence0.9916
199.72***
νDF4.1921
6.32***

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.1456
1.60
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1294
12.69***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9916
199.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1921
6.32***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days