Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.31%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
3.33%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.39%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0759 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 30.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 978.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.4112 | 3.99*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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