Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
3.74%
1 Week
3.76%
1 Month
3.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1993 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.3873 | 0.60 |
| αscore | 0.0768 | 10.99*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 549.20*** |
| νDF | 9.2245 | 1.62 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.3873 | 0.60 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0768 | 10.99*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 549.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2245 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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