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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.31%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

3.33%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

3.39%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0759
6.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0324
30.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
978.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4112
3.99***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days