Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.16%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.17%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
3.19%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 1998 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0670 | 10.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 55.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 2,505.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0866 | 17.13*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
249 days
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