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Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.33%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

4.33%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

4.32%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 238 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~238 daysv = 7.15 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0699
2.61***
αscore0.0524
14.04***
βpersistence0.9971
618.16***
νDF7.1534
4.18***

0.997

Persistence

238d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0699
2.61***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0524
14.04***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9971
618.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1534
4.18***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

238 days