Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.45%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
2.55%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
2.81%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0434 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1773 | 30.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9494 | 113.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2479 | 22.60*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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