Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.45%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

2.55%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

2.81%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0434
5.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1773
30.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9494
113.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2479
22.60***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days