Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

9.25%

increased by 2.50%

1 Week

8.82%

increased by 2.07%

1 Month

7.49%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 3.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0458
1.49
αscore0.1885
7.77***
βpersistence0.9449
26.32***
νDF3.1564
6.19***

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0458
1.49
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1885
7.77***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9449
26.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1564
6.19***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days