Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
0.04%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
0.08%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
0.15%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | ||
| 0.7500 | 7,499,880.00 | |
| 0.0000 | 120.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 7.0011 | 30.91 | |
| 0.3000 | 31.43 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025
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