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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, March 27th, 2026

1 Day

0.03%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

0.06%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

0.11%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, March 30, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m111
α0.75007,499,880.00
β0.0000120.00
γ0.50005,000,000.00
λ17.001130.91
λ20.300031.43
λ30.00000.00
Estimation Period:
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025