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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026

1 Day

0.04%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

0.08%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Month

0.15%

decreased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m111
α0.75007,499,880.00
β0.0000120.00
γ0.50005,000,000.00
λ17.001130.91
λ20.300031.43
λ30.00000.00
Estimation Period:
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025