V-Lab
Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.06%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
3.10%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
3.07%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2001 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2966 | 39.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3307 | 20.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1035 | 8.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0016 | 2.58*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2207 | 3.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7337 | 8.25*** |
Persistence:
0.679
Half-life:
2 days
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