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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

3.06%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

3.10%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

3.07%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2001 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2966
39.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3307
20.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1035
8.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0016
2.58***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2207
3.12***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7337
8.25***

Persistence:

0.679

Half-life:

2 days