Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
0.76%
decreased by 7.87%
1 Week
1.21%
decreased by 7.42%
1 Month
2.29%
decreased by 6.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | ||
| 1.0000 | 9,999,900.00 | |
| 0.0206 | 205,990.00 | |
| -0.0412 | -411,770.00 | |
| 0.0170 | 7.38 | |
| 0.9176 | 19.90 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025
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