V-Lab
Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.97%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.00%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.03%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 184 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0232 | 9.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 404.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0016 | 1.20 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0655 | 0.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2233 | 0.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
184 days
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