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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026

1 Day

0.76%

decreased by 7.87%

1 Week

1.21%

decreased by 7.42%

1 Month

2.29%

decreased by 6.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Government/Credit Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m46
α1.00009,999,900.00
β0.0206205,990.00
γ-0.0412-411,770.00
λ10.01707.38
λ20.917619.90
λ30.00000.00
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025