V-Lab
ICE BofA US Corporate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
4.22%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.23%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.27%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 178% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 8.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8644 | 44.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0386 | 9.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0286 | 1.62 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9665 | 49.04*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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