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V-Lab

ICE BofA US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

3.91%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

3.92%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

3.98%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0907
10.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
36.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9921
1,247.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9022
4.22***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days