Bloomberg Multiverse Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.17%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.18%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
4.23%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1177 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0348 | 29.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 1,304.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9948 | 4.77*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
157 days
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