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Bloomberg Multiverse Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.63%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

4.63%

increased by 0.41%

1 Month

4.64%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Multiverse Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 31, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2281
8.88***
αARCH0.0402
7.18***
βGARCH0.9525
146.18***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0006
1.91*

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2281
8.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0402
7.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9525
146.18***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0006
1.91*

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days