Bloomberg Multiverse Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.89%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
3.90%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.95%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2000 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2300 | 8.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0399 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9535 | 144.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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