ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6.13%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
6.15%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.24%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9486 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0416 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9521 | 172.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0031 | 2.30** |
| γ2 | -0.0046 | -2.58*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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