Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.53%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
1.70%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
2.07%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2014 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2849 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2978 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6317 | 13.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.9687 | 2.03** |
| γ2 | -3.5003 | -2.31** |
| γ3 | 2.4312 | 2.22** |
| γ4 | -1.0161 | -1.02 |
| γ5 | 0.7228 | 0.61 |
| γ6 | -2.4146 | -1.69* |
| γ7 | 4.3990 | 3.82*** |
| γ8 | -4.6691 | -5.92*** |
| γ9 | 2.2452 | 2.70*** |
| γ10 | 0.3330 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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