Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

1.53%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

1.70%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

2.07%

increased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg Euro Contingent Capital Bond TR Index Unhedged EUR S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2014 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2849
3.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2978
7.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6317
13.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.9687
2.03**
γ2-3.5003
-2.31**
γ32.4312
2.22**
γ4-1.0161
-1.02
γ50.7228
0.61
γ6-2.4146
-1.69*
γ74.3990
3.82***
γ8-4.6691
-5.92***
γ92.2452
2.70***
γ100.3330
0.54

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days