Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.63%
increased by 0.67%
1 Week
4.00%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
4.62%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8960 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2827 | 9.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5944 | 18.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1698 | -2.60*** |
| γ2 | 0.2533 | 2.82*** |
| γ3 | -0.1346 | -2.89*** |
| γ4 | 0.1001 | 2.01** |
| γ5 | -0.1114 | -1.80* |
| γ6 | 0.1900 | 3.09*** |
| γ7 | -0.2112 | -5.14*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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